Spinup,

Though I cannot speak for Ed ( or anyone else here for that matter ), my guess on this a.m.'s low rating has more to do with the overall rule of persistance and pattern, rather than prevailing conditions. So often, NHC will themselves put their "spin" on anticipated development based upon the recent history of developing systems. I have seen many a year where a few degrees of convection will continually spin up, and it is a given that atmospheric conditions will likely allow the next several will do the same. Likewise, in years where "blobs" traverse the Atlantic, with little indication of development, despite adequate conditions, NHC would often become rather passive on anticipated development, until actual cyclogenesis starts to occur. Kinda like the 'ol addage, "show me the money".

So many waves come off the African coast each season, many practically looking like storms coming off land! Only to lose all their convection and practically any surface signature beyond an inverted V. Unlike the majority this year however, 96L has maintained its overall cloud structure, maintained convection, and vis. sat. show stratocum's streaming from thousands ( ok, so i'm a little bullish on this one ) - make that hundreds of miles in a slow rotation. Though a dry slot exists to the systems north, 96L comes complete with a very moist and large envelope ( not to mention power windows, dual exhaust, and AM/FM/DVD !).

My guess is that come tomm. a.m. vis. sat, Ed, NHC, myself, and even my Uncle Fester will be singing 96L's praises ( well, I really don't have an Uncle Fester, but if I did he'd be jazzed over the look of this system.)