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This system has gone from "most likely to develop" to least likely. It mostly avoided the Bay of Campeche and is in the Central Gulf now, it still could form, but chances are falling.
Then they suddenly shot up after I wrote that. In fact it's doing all the right things, may be even called by 5PM if not sooner if recon gets in there.
This one is in light steering currents which most of the time would put it wildly tracking, but the high forecast to build north of it will push it generally west if not south of west into Mexico. Upper air seems to indicate it won't get to anything stronger than Tropical Storm strength, either.
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