Here Here on the probabilities of a new TC forming out that way over the course of the next 72 hours. (I also rambled about this potential in my personal weather blog late Friday night) .. I'll even take your post one further... I see the potential for up to two separate depressions (or likely better) forming during the next 10 days within an area roughly from within the western half of the Caribbean through all of the GOM and out to around Bermuda. As I am sure you know, this is now also even getting some play in several of the models.

With the amplified ridge-trof leveling out, looking more probable that a low will, if not already is, be pinching and closing off somewhere around Cuba/Fl Straits up to around Bermuda. It's now looking like the GFS is buying into that solution, and is wanting to split the developing low in two, sending one cyclone fishing out to the northeast, and it's sister acting as a synoptic left-mover, scurrying northwest into the GOM. Variations of this are running among other models, of course. Both the NOGAPS & UKMET seem to want to reawaken Karen, perhaps, and have her possibly tap into that newfound broth synergistically, then off to fish while, yes, that left-mover heads off to the GOM. Looks like the NAM simply wants to spit out a deepening cyclone and send it northwesterly under the ridge to cross S. Florida, and then into the GOM. Etc. Frankly, there is now a pretty good chunk o moddo suppoto for this prognostication we have.

Just checking the obs (4:30 ET, 3:30 here) looks like pressures are indeed falling in the area where convection has been persisting about there...