MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 12:23 PM |
Re: 92L transitioning
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Quote:
I'm not so sure about this. The 00Z NOGAPS and UK model bring 92L straight over/into Florida. In fact, the NOGAPS run reminds me quite strongly of Charley's path (and since yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of that storm, I sure didn't need to be reminded of it!)
Those two models are very different from the GFDL and GFS, which are initialized from the same data. What could be causing such a big difference?
I'm thinking the Nogaps is wrong on this one. The best way to handle something like this is to try think "Why wouldn't it hit the US?" instead of why it would.
In this case, it looks like it may head more west than north in the short term, which may cause some interaction with Hispaniola, if it does it will tear it up some, and now the models are trending to pull it north, which makes the north and out to sea scenario a bit more likely, and luckily keeps it away from Florida.
Even the GFDL this morning gets the system close to the somewhat coast but stays off shore where no direct effects could be felt (other than large waves). I'm cautiously optimistic about 92L right now not heading toward Florida, but I still want to see what recon finds today and will be more interested at looking at the system over the weekend than today or tomorrow.
Right now I don't trust the models, but I like what I see if it continues trending north and east.