CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 14 2008 01:01 PM
Re: Question for the lounge....

Quote:

when a storm gets classified, go with the GFDL unless its the outliner of models and also if the NHC says disregard it. Sometimes it will have a bad feedback of data in it (like any model can). Anyways GFDL model with the ECMWF and GFS blending in.



Scott is right.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

AND THE NOAA DROPSONDES RELEASED IN VICINITY OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WERE BEFORE MODELS INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...INITIALIZATION ERRORS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.


USED YESTERDAYS COORDINATED TRACK FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WITH A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
DAY 7 POINT IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
GEM GLOBAL SENDS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...REPRESENTING THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
SHEARING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA DEFINING THIS
GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER COORDINATION WITH TPC
TODAY AND TAKE A FRESH LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM.


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