| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:55 AM |
|
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge
|
Quote:
According to the NHC 5am advisory:
CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT, (earlier than expected ?)
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. (So now they are not so confident in thier initial track or forecasted track.. could this mean a shift to the EAST in the track ?)
I'll be the first to admit I'm in no way an expert on any of this, but it sounds to me like they ( NHC ) still has NO CLUE on where Fay may go or end up..
Per the 5AM Discussion:
THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE
TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT...
I think the reason you are concluding "they have no clue" on where Fay might go at this current time is probably because NHC does not want to put a lot of confidence in a forecast track based on indirect measurements of the current location of the surface center of Fay. I am sure by the 11AM or 5PM advisories they will have a little more confidence. Correct me if I am wrong but that's what I gather from reading the 5AM discussion.
~jess~