Plotting coordinates from the images this morning against the expected track coordinates, it appears that Gus is still tracking more northerly than than forecast. If this trend continues it would not be surprising to see the 11 am EDT update come with another nudge of the track to the east. It wouldn't take much to put it between Grand Isle and the MRGO -- which would be about as bad for NOLA as it could get.

The forecast track from its present position towards landfall is very similar to Betsy in 1965, which led to the Corps of Engineers Hurricane Protection Program.