Looking at the various water vapor loops you can see how the cone make prefect sense: ahead of Ike is a flow from the NE pushing him SW, then there is the flow (or wake) behind Hanna coming from up the SE over Cuba. You can clearly see the ridge building using the Eastern US view here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Also visible is the front that squeezing Hanna and accelerating her N currently and will push her NE rapidly after landfall. This front doesn't look to be deep enough to push Ike back E if (or when) he reaches the Gulf unless he move much further N. In other words if he reaches the Gulf the track would be more towards the Panhandle then Ft. Myers/Tampa, but that is WAY too far down the road to determine at this time.

The current flow over FL is still SE but it seems the ridge is building in quicker thus the reason for Ike moving SW. My worry is the weakness over the southern Bahamas/NE Cuba that will give Ike a chance to sneak NW a bit sooner. The models favor the ridge building in strongly behind Hanna and thus keeping Ike south while he continues to marches west. This solution seems very likely to me so I'd say the NHC track looks good for now, just watch for Ike's position relative to the forecast solution come Monday - if he is N of his forecast position then South FL should be on alert. Regardless of his position the Keys have to be in full on prep mode by Monday since Ike will come close enough regardless of any track errors.

The good news is (like Andrew) so far Ike has a small hurricane force wind field (45 miles presently) so a track thru the lower Keys will only produce Cat 1/2 effects on the upper Keys, Dade county might only see sustained TS level winds and Broward would feel only TS gusts. Keep in mind these are just my uneducated quick estimates, PLEASE check the various wind field products issued by the NHC to see what to except once we are under a watch/warning situation.