danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071430.shtml

Key West Hurricane Local Statement:
......PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml