Ah - I have a better understanding of where you were heading with your question. If you define 'very busy' as 18 or more named storms, the season has probably already hit the point where those forecasts are not likely to verify. A forecast for 16 named storms is rapidly approaching the point where it will be difficult to attain that total if the basin remains quiet for another week to ten days. Storm totals of 14 or 15 are still within the realm of statistical possibility. Of the 16 busiest seasons (14 or more named storms) since 1885, 12 had already developed their fourth named storm by August 14th and all of them had developed their fourth storm by August 28th.
ED