The GFS wasn't developing the system, but the overall chances are still pretty high. The good news (if you can call it that) is that the Euro was more out to sea with it, but on the other hand it just means the models are all over the place, and with it staying weaker (so far) also could up the chances of a westward motion.

Most models are sending it out to sea this morning, but the weaker system implies they all may be wrong. Odds favor the out to sea scenario, but with a lot of questions.

It's a mixed message right now, in other words.