(Weather Analyst)
Sat Oct 30 2010 02:46 AM
Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge

The following analysis is based on the 30/00Z run.

It is difficult to locate a center on satellite early this morning, however the broader circulation is moving more NW than WNW and current movement supports the GFDL.

I'm having a hard time accepting NHC's future track positions given the current environment and future environment. Currently there is a trough south of Bermuda extending SSW between Hispaniola and Cuba to a closed low near 17.0N and 79.5W.

Goes Shear Analysis confirms there is a bulls eye of 60 knots of shear between Hispaniola and PR with axis extending NE and SW where isotachs of 50, 40 and 30 knots extend just offshore of Panama. Currently winds of 10 to 15 knots are located over Tomas. Upper level ridge currently over the TX/LA coast.

Models have a vigorous shortwave moving south and east along the front side of the trough in 5 days which will extend from a potent upper low over the New England area extending south-south west to what will become a strong inverted and cutoff low near the TX/LA/GOM border with strong westerlies extending as far south as 25N latitude. This scenario will create considerable gradience and shear SE of this trough.

The only fly in the ointment is whether this longwave trough will pick up Tomas and I am in the camp that believes it will given it's strength, the calendar and position. I don't believe Tomas will move any farther west than south of Hispaniola where re-curvature is likely to occur if not before near PR. Steering currents will likely weaken and Tomas will remain near PR and Hispaniola for an extended amount of time before the longwave trough picks Tomas up and carries it out into the North Atlantic as an extra-tropical system in due time.

Intensity...difficult to pinpoint but given it's current satellite presentation, SSTs of 28 and 29C and position it can't be dismissed that Tomas will likely be a major hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours. Tomas for the moment is well south and will have an opportunity to strengthen before gaining enough latitude to feel the westerlies and the calendar.

We cannot dismiss the imminent danger this hurricane is likely to pose for the country of Haiti and her citizens.


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