I'm not quite sure that I understand the concern, i.e., is it with Katia, the models, or NHC? Regarding Katia, because of southwesterly wind shear and maybe some dry air entrainment (the western portion of the system is weak), I'm not quite sure that the storm ever reached hurricane intensity - but that is what she is listed as and its close enough. The NHC states that they still expect Katia to resume a WNW track and I cannot presume to know what the confidence level is at NHC, however, misjudging a portion of a forecast has little to do with confidence and a lot to do with mis-interpretation. The inconsistency in the models is something that happens - often - which is why they are simply a guide and not a forecast. Speaking of forecasts, the description of this Forum states: " Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". " , i.e., its a place to tell others what you think is going to happen.

I've given some thought to an earlier post regarding potential impacts from 93L on the track of Katia. Right now 93L is too weak and the storms are too far apart, however if 93L should intensify, the circulation around the new system could put the brakes on the southern limit of the extent of the east coast trough. This might then alter the magnitude of the weakness that Katia would encounter. Its a bit of a stretch and its certainly not a given - its just a thought.
ED