MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

VALID JUN 21/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC

MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING

THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.