To be fair... I think the 3 day was not that bad, it's the 5 day I have questions on ... as well as discounting the other reliable model as much as was done when they went with the European.
Recon shows a strengthening system ...though would like to have buoy data from the surface directly and they have upgraded her to 60 mph with deepening surface pressure.
I think there is an over emphasis on the "trough" as being the main steering current vs the other smaller ones. As in IF the frontal boundary goes deep then... I think there are a myriad of factors here, the front being just one of them.
The ULL has been a player, both ULLs and high pressure to her north which was previously blocking her northern movement.
I think it would have been better for the NHC to make a big circle in the Gulf and later take that circle in a specific direction, because at 3 mph forward speed she can easily sit there in the center of the North Gulf of Mexico pumping tropical moisture from the deep tropics up over Florida for days... while piling water up onto the beaches.
I think a tight cone with a disorganized TS is like treating a fruit fly like it's a mosquito.
But a track towards Mobile Bay has always been to be a possible one... then bending back to the right or even dipping back and circling the Gulf again.
The front does not need to be "that strong" for it to exert an influence over Debby...
It's also possible as the ULL digs down into the Gulf...Debby on her right side will simply bounce north caught up in the flow... with or without the front.
I thought it was a gutsy call to totally discount a very consistent model .... mulligan maybe, let's move on and see if Debby moves today.
Ps... the warnings are going up to the east as the models shift east.