mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge

YES, this morning you're forecast is looking
spot on.

":uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system..."

" Isn't this (the Latest GFS Ensemble track guidance) keeping it at basically a tropical storm or maybe low Cat 1 hurricane? (I get this from the pressure they have it at..) If that is the case, it makes sense why they have it so far west, but I think it will be stronger than that and therefore go more northerly. "

A weak storm hits Tampico Environs.

A strong storm clips the Yucatan's NE Corner.

Is that a fair assumption?

Thanx

Jim


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