possibly hyper-active algorithms for the effects of the Gulf Stream? It could explain the models turning north in long range forecasts if the storms get north of the Leewards. I know the surf has been pushing moderate to hard in Cocoa Beach from the SE all summer, more than I remember in past years. Though a warming planet should ease the stream, I haven't seen it yet here. And our thermocline hit the surf more or less on target this weekend for the first time all summer, crabs standing around on the beach at noon is usually a pretty good sign the water just got frigid. Just in time for a small bit of cold water moderation as the long-range GFS turn of 94L turns towards us (again!) and another unneeded gassing of the RV for escape. Been since 2006 when we got hit three times in three weeks and my insurance is still going up and the batteries are still dead in the RV. But I wouldn't live anywhere else, especially in NJ.