Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Aug 23 2012 07:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge

Many of you have made excellent observations on the problematic center fixes over the past 24 hours. I realize that multiple vortices within a general circulation area is the prime suspect, but there seems to have been a bad-luck tendency to pinpoint the wrong one - which becomes frustrating because the real track, forecast track, and model track are seldom in sync. At 18Z I would have put the center at 14.8N - perhaps 15.2N to allow for some consistency. The18Z Advisory stated that a WNW movement had started, but I just don't see any sign of that - at least not yet. Maintaining a nebulous center around 16N will yield bad data input for the various models. Isaac remains a poorly organized system, so realize that the details of the model outputs for both track and intensity will be suspect until Isaac develops and maintains a firm center.
ED



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