CoconutCandy
(User)
Fri Aug 24 2012 04:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge

The story of multiple low level centers continues. There almost assuredly remains at lease a couple of low level vorticity centers embedded within the overall cloud mass, each center seemingly generating their own intermittent deep convection.

However, unlike the previous few days when deep convection came and went, the main difference tonight, now that we've entered the overnight convective maximum cycle, is the SHEER AMOUNT of deep and sustained convection of the 'bursting' variety, with very cold cloud top temps of -80 and colder, what used to be called "Hot Towers" in the old days.

Additionally, the massive thunderstorms are beginning to assume ever so telling comma shaped patterns about their respective low level centers, implying quickly training thunderstorms, very fast vertical updraft velocities, and in the process, they are imparting enormous amounts of energy via the release of stupendous amounts of latent heat of condensation and warming the middle atmosphere, feeding the warm core, lowering the central pressure and, eventually, increasing the winds and expanding the diameter of the wind field by way of an escalating, self sustaining, positive feedback mechanism.

It's Happening Right Now. This is finally(!) the night that Isaac transforms into something mightier than he's been thus far. Something the models can finally get a real handle on. Something 'more tangible' the reconnaissance missions can log into their flight recorders and make all those dropsondes more worth expending. Something to really REV UP the media engine. And, unfortunately, something to potentially inflict great discomfort and misery for hundreds of thousands still living in tents and flimsy shacks on Haiti. Something to really give the Republican Convention something to think twice about. Something that just might break Florida's unprecedented(?) string of nearly 2,500 days since it's last hurricane landfall. Now, THAT'S something to write home about !!

This scatterometer image taken just before sunset Thursday speaks volumes of what many of us have been going through, especially the superb crew at the NHC, poring over the various satellite photos exhibiting a plethora of vorticity maximums to contemplate and harangue to the Nth degree.

(Of Note here is the Total Lacking of any PURELY West Winds. Can you find any ?!? Let me know!)

It's even possible there may be some binary interaction among the centers, with the LLCC's slowly revolving about one another. But eventually they should consolidate, with only one center winning out, possibly by consuming the other.

Yes, so far 'Isaac' is a strange one for the record books. But now it's time for 'Isaac' to really show us what he is capable of.



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