Initialization, ie,center location) problems, may make the details of the models be off, but if the system stacks further south, the models will likely shift west again. Today is the big day for that, if it remains weak and disorganized it will get torn up and drift a bit west, if the stacking that appears to be happening occurs, and strengthening happens, the models may be closer to being correct (although likely to shift somewhat to the west).

The 0z euro implied a keys crossing and a western panhandle landfall, and the cmc implied a southeast florida landfall, and then another in the panhandle. GFS was keys crossing, and Destin area landfall. HWRF 6Z implies brief keys crossing and landfall in Mississippi.