MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 24 2012 08:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge

Quote:

So the Evans OFCI is an 'unofficial' NHC?

Until the NHC over rides it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16ir.html




No the Clark image has the 11PM Track. That model output map is for 6Z (2AM EDT) It's just an older official track.

You can see older official tracks here
When you look at track maps, it's vital to check the timestamp on them. Z (Zulu) time is +4 from EDT right now, so subtract 4 hours anywhere you see a Z time. Standard time is +5.

Ie, 6Z is 2AM EDT, 12Z is 8am EDT, 18z is 2pm, 0z is 8pm. When the models refer to it, it refers to the time of initialization, not when they are available.. GFS usually shows up 3 1/2 hours after the initialization time, the euro a little later than that.

The NHC's current forecast track (including the entire cone) still seems ok, although it may drift west some today, but not much.




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