| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 26 2012 12:45 PM |
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge
|
Quote:
berrywr: I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Issac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land, over Cuba. The long wave trough at 200/300 millibars extends south through the peninsula of FL then exiting SW FL into the GOM...wind shear analysis continues to show 30 knots from the SW aloft over convection over FL, Florida Straits near the Keys decreasing to 10 knots to near the center of Issac; overall shear is decreasing in velocity. One note, I do not input data from previous or similar tropical storms and/or hurricanes; while there may be similarities the bottom line is the data in the here and now and the data inputted into the models and their respective ensembles is unique to that storm.
And that's why I do history. There's only so many ways to write a book
and to 'run' a hurricane.
Isaac's now in hurricane alley.
There's a reason everyone from Mikanopy to Spanish galleons to CentCom
have picked Tampa Bay as HQ....
Isaac now follows the Classic Retired Analogs:
It tracked nearly due westward, eventually becoming clearly identifiable on satellite imagery on August 9. By that time, the thunderstorm activity concentrated into a circular area of convection. The next day, it moved through the Lesser Antilles, although there was no evidence of a closed circulation. On August 13, the wave passed near or over the southern coast of Jamaica as its convection spread northeastward through the Bahamas. Subsequently it began a slower motion to the northwest. On August 14, the Hurricane Hunters flew to investigate for a closed circulation near the Bahamas as well as near the Cayman Islands.[2] The crew observed a developing center in the western Caribbean, and winds quickly reached tropical storm status. It is estimated Tropical Storm Camille developed late on August 14 with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of Grand Cayman.[2][3]
Initially, Hurricane Camille was forecast to turn northeastward toward the Florida panhandle. Instead, it continued northwestward and rapidly intensified. Its eye contracted to a diameter of less than 8 miles (13 km), and strong rainbands developed around the entire hurricane. Due to the small eye, Hurricane Hunters at first had difficulties in obtaining the strength; however a flight late on August 16 recorded a very low pressure of 908 hectopascals (26.8 inHg), with winds estimated at 150 mph (240 km/h).[2] At the time, it was not expected to intensify further.[3]
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