(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 21 2012 09:01 AM
Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge

What is most impressive in ways is how suddenly out of nothing... comes something.

It's been so quiet in the tropics and most waves have been weak, poorly formed and odd looking.

Here we suddenly have (as the models predicted) a well organized wave with rudimentary spiral banding features and the right shape, in the right place with conditions positive for intensification.

Begs you to think on the possibilities, despite my cautious mind that says it will just go NE out of the Caribbean. But, a lot depends on WHEN it forms and the exact place that surface circulation begins as to the timing of the exact real track.

Good job by the models of seeing this even when they were 15 days out.

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