Current northern Chesapeake Bay forecast synopsis:
- Peak surge will be early Monday (+1 foot) and late Tuesday (+2 foot)
- Western bay will have a negative surge late Monday into early Tuesday (-0.5 foot)
- Eastern bay will have a positive surge during that same period (+0.5 foot)
- Wind direction will shift from NNE early Monday to N Monday to NW late Monday to W Tuesday.
- Wave height will build to 3-4' on Sunday, 4-5' on Monday, 6-7' on Monday night. Waves will start to decrease Tuesday.
Key point: Highest waves will occur as the wind shifts to the NW and the negative surge begins. By the time the positive surge resumes, winds will be out of the W. This means portions of the western Bay may escape the worst of the coastal damage, but the eastern Bay will not, as both the winds and the positive surge will coincide for them. This is the best case scenario with the storm traveling north of the Bay, through southern PA. If the storm were to shift South, conditions will be much worse.
Bay wave height: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.1123920088853&lon=-76.33580608398438
Surge height: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml
Wind direction forecast: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html
Please note that this is general guidance and to plan for worst case scenarios of major coastal damage from surge plus waves.
I have lived on the northern Bay for the past 18 years and I have never seen a storm bring 7' waves. During Nor'easters, we commonly get 3-4' waves, rarely any more than that. This storm is unreal.