doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 02 2013 09:50 AM
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge

And so it continues: latest visible shows some form of llc east of Vero with little vertical development near by, and most convection well south. This is the Gulf Stream, it is early August , and the environment is moist...the Outlook did not emphasize unfavorable conditions...and I suggest this be taken seriously.
If memory serves me correctly Katrina was born under a similar circumstance: a persistent vortex had meandered across the Atlantic and had been classified and then declassified in its crossing. One August day it wandered into the coastal waters of SE Florida and caught a breath and rapidly intensified. Not saying that will happen here but the possibility for rapid close in intensification is always something to consider.

Update: 10:15 base reflectivity suggests a weak surface rotation east of the coast between Ft. Pierce and Port St Lucie. Only scattered showers ...



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