The tiny circulation of 95L bumped up against the cold front pushing through south Texas early Saturday morning. However, based on Brownsville radar as well as microwave passes, the two did not initially merge, and 95L remained quite distinct for some time. The Invest area of low pressure did however start generating deep convection in response to a solid baroclinic kick from the approaching front and associated upper level trough.

As of this reply, Sunday morning, Sept. 22, it appears based on conventional satellite and microwave imagery that 95L has now merged with the front, and that this merger has resulted in the formation of a more vigorous frontal low. Maximum sustained winds indicated by a 1233Z Windsat pass were mostly in the 20-30 knot range, with some gusts in excess of 50 knots. This low is presently situated near 26N 93.5W, with movement to the east.

Several different model runs this past week were suggesting something of this nature taking place, with a merger then resulting in the development of a tropical cyclone while in the northern GOM this weekend into early next week, or while traversing the Gulf Stream later next week. Given that this low has been getting better organized and should have at least another day or two over very warm waters, it is possible that it spins off from the front and gets a name. The next name on the list for 2013 is Jerry.