Models are one thing but what we are actually seeing is something else, perhaps in this case. There is a vigorous upper low feature that has dropped down from LA coast to east of Corpus Christi that is having a substantial impact on the subject feature.., consistent with the current GFS, a weak surface low is observed north of the Yucatan but it is exposed as the upper low is creating shear over the feature..and the flow around this upper low has had considerable influence on the potential development of the surface low. The GFS seems to want to diminish the influence of this upper feature over the next day or so and thereby allow more deepening of the surface low...
Right now I would guess that this will not become an organized tropical low as it is more subtropical in shape and form.