Fri Sep 01 2017 06:19 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Today's model runs are a bit better news, mainly for the Caribbean islands, beyond that is still too soon to tell.

18Z GFS keeps the storm well north of the Caribbean islands, and east of the Bahamas, where the run ends, its a bit east, beyond that it's a bit odd but its still worth watching as it shows a landfall in western Long island on Sep 10th.

12Z Euro also keeps it (Barely) north of the Caribbean islands, but close enough for concern, the south side likely would be the weaker side (right of the eye is usually the strongest) It does get dangerously close to the Bahamas also by Sep 10/11th, closest to Florida on the 12th, east of the state, and moving fairly slowly. The trough toward the end of the Euro is the thing to watch if it would push it more into the coast.

In short, better news for the Caribbean, although they will still need to watch it very closely, but the official track is also leaning toward keeping it north. Beyond that is too soon to tell, impacts along the East coast are possible, but direct impact (landfall) is marginally less likely, but the future beyond 5 days is extremely uncertain. There is a good deal of risk that it could landfall along the US coast, more than most systems Still plenty of time to watch it, and there is no reason to hype this system other than being aware of it. This system is 10-12 days out and it is way too early to jump to any sort of conclusion any more than that at this point is probably hype. Watch and have a plan if you are along the east coast (particularly NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY) although the GEFS says Florida, and watch, of course, in the Northeast Caribbean.

So in short just keep watching.

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