Sat Sep 02 2017 07:43 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Morning model runs:

0z Euro: Very close but just north of the Caribbean Islands Tues-Wed, Through the Central and northwest Bahamas sep 9-11th. Cat 4 landfall near Charleston, SC overnight Sep 11-12th.

6z GFS: Misses Caribbean and Bahamas, turns north, closest approach to NC on sep 10 (faster than Euro), landfall near Atlantic City, NJ in the morning of Sep 10th. cat 3. and quickly moves out.

HWRF has cat 4 north of the Caribbean islands, HMON as well.

Canadian misses Caribbean and Bahamas and turns Irma out to sea (West of Bermuda, East of the US)

The GFS Ensembles concentrate around NC/VA this morning.

Two camps are faster moving storm GFS/GEFS that moves further north and the euro which has a slower moving storm, caught behind and further south. Euro also has a stronger storm and is much more dangerous for the Bahamas.

Too soon to tell beyond 5 days, but looking better for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but mixed for the Bahamas, and east coast seems more likely than not for a landfall. Where is still up in the air, SC/NC/VA seems to be the current midpoint. But FL/GA and north of VA still have a high chance, but unless the timing drastically changes Florida seems less likely. Out to sea is still a possibility as well, more likely than Florida.

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