Sat Sep 02 2017 06:32 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

18z gfs avoids the Caribbean barely, stays east of the Bahamas, grazes the outer banks and landfalls as a cat 4 on the south end of the delmarva peninsula the morning of Sep 11th (monday) then heads toward DC/Baltimore. I know that area has had history with "I" storms before.

Overall thoughts, Mid Atlantic most risk, then Northeast, followed by out to sea, and then Florida/GA least risk. It's going to get uncomfortably close to the NE Caribbean, Bahamas may get some of it also. Confidence in general is staggeringly low.

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