Sun Sep 03 2017 07:07 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

More overnight:

0z euro: Clips NE Caribbean islands (barely) with the weaker side of the storm on Wednesday (cat 3?), Over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas Friday, through Central Bahamas into Saturday Northern Bahamas by Sunday and starts heading north Sunday, (Goes through nearly all the Bahamas as a cat 4) Landfall near Wilmington, NC Cat 4 or 5 Sep 12th, then rides north through Eastern Virginia with the Outer banks and Hampton roads on the dirty side (East) of the system as it weakens.

6z gfs run mirrors the 0z with a Cat 5 landfall near Wilmington midday September 11th, then heading into West Virginia It barely clears the Caribbean islands and Bahamas to the north and east.

Again worth watching along the entire east coast and Bahamas as this still could change particularly after 4-5 days since a lot depends on the trough and ridge situation at the time. We aren't at the phase of the NE Caribbean yet, much less Bahamas, any long range models or projections are guidence on odds for future impact, I'd have a plan ready along the Bahamas, east coast regardless from Florida all the way to Boston, and start implementing things as the odds go up, particularly when watches/warnings go up, which could come this coming Saturday or so for the US.

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