| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 03 2017 04:25 PM |
|
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge
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Quote:
I haven't seen any talk here of the UKMET, which seems to be doing a very good job so far this year. What is the general opinion on this model? As a SWFL resident I'm particularly uneasy about its latest runs.
UKMET is fairly reliable as a TC genesis tool. There are other models more fine-tuned to TC track and intensity. Also, its run goes out to 168, whereas other Globals being discussed here in the Lounge can be 240 +
As of the 0z 03 Sep run, the UKMET drives Irma towards South Florida, but that's where that particular model's run ends. To that point, its track is very similar to the other primary and consensus models.
Peak intensity up to the end of the Oz run is 139 knots at 925mb (roughly 2500'), which could correspond to about 140 MPH or so at the surface.