Sun Sep 03 2017 06:22 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Afternoon models
18z GFS misses Caribbean islands to the north, (barely,they will still get affects), Friday morning over Turks and caicos cat 4, and moves through nearly all of the Bahamas through Sunday where it's over Great Abaco as a cat 5.then moves due north, staying east of Florida. Landfall near Wilmington, NC Overnight between Sep 11 and 12th as a cat 5 hurricane,

12Z Euro is further west over the Bahamas, but curves rapidly out to sea (Closest point to the us is sept 12).

Overall the entire East coast should be watching Irma, and hoping the out to sea scenario happens (like the Euro) Things are not looking good for the Bahamas, and the Northeast Caribbean may get some issues from the storm, but hopefully misses the core of Irma. Trying to specify where Irma will go at this point beyond 5 days is irresponsible, the western shifts are troubling for Florida, but odds still favor NC or out to sea. These aren't great odds though. So it really is too soon for any serious speculation on continental UI impacts.

GFS is likely overdoing the low pressures as well, it's very unusual to have cat 5 conditions last very long, so I'm hoping that is just overkill on the models part, odds are its way too strong (although Irma may very well be still very strong)

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