Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 06:43 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Ok,

First I have to say it's interesting that everybody is ignoring the cyclonic system to the north/north west of Irma. I get that it's not that likely to get too strong but there's a pretty clear eye and cyclonic activity there. The reason I bring this up is that system without a doubt is affecting Irma. I'm going to say that it's going to weaken anything looking to chew on Irma to the N/N/W. Simply this is going to help keep Irma South of doing a kissing run up Florida.

The N.Equitorial current isn't exactly pushing Irma North either.

Now for my Irma DEEP thoughts.

First, i'm going to point out the obvious.

If Irma stays south, it's going to nail the D-R and Cuba (we're going to ignore D-R and Cuba's Hurricane hits because it doesn't matter if it's a 1 or a 5, NOBODY ever needs (or gets) aid on the D-R or Cuba.--sarcasm because we all know it's true)

IF Irma hit's Cuba she's going to drop intensity and strength in the mountainous regions(as usual) if the eye gets anywhere near rolling over the island. It's at that point where I believe Irma goes north.

The cone is currently north of the D-R and Cuba however this S/S-W push(and that baby system to the North keeps weakening the Gulf Stream) is still ongoing so it very well could get there.

My personal opinion is that the S-S/W continues and it keeps pushing Irma West. Admittedly my own personal weakness is predicting how Western/North Western ridges(with the Gulf Stream) affect storms but Irma just looks more south than people are thinking IMO.



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