Mon Sep 04 2017 07:40 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z Euro joins the GFS heading toward Cuba/ scraping the north coast then cuts north just east of Florida, and over the Western Bahamas, with a NC/SC border landfall on September 13th as a at 3/4.

6z GFS is similar at first to the 0z, but moves deeper into Cuba and exits north near HAvana, then crosses over Key West as a cat 4/5 on the morning of Sep 11th, then Landfalls again near Naples then rides just east of I-75 all the way up into Tennessee. Still overdoing pressures the whole way, but a major cat 4/5 the entire time.

Fortunately there is still some time and beyond 4 days the forecast becomes a bit difficult, so this will likely change, it may shift further west and go into the Gulf, or shift back east, the chances of no landfall (out to sea) are going down very quickly though. Continue to watch and monitor the system, the GFS's pressures are unrealistic especially with land interaction, but the idea of a major is not.

I suspect the models will shift (Again) today and tomorrow.

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