JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:34 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.




That model run is too horrible to even think about

I never paid attention to ONE model, but the south and west trend has continued over the last few updates with all models coming into a general agreement. The track has been steady W followed by a turn to the N, the a NE curve. The difference now is Irma runs longer W thus putting her in Cuba instead of the Bahamas. This means the N turn brings the track VERY close to the S FL regardless. So I am pretty much on full alert now.

Looking for forward to more aircraft data to help establish the strength and location of the blocking Bremuda high to the N. Next we have trough strength and timing as that is looking iffy - it might become a cut off low and not the pushing force once predicted. Her motion is still WSW so in the next update we should see W, followed by WNW. Anymore S and the west coast of FL starts to become a worry as we looking at a potential Charley situation. Seems hard to believe a storm that looked like a threat to Eastern Bahamas just 2 days ago could become a GOM event is pretty remarkable.

Only good news for now continues to be the small size of hurricane force winds unfortunately that too is predicted to change. Need to hope this front pushing the US builds a nice wall and kicks Irma back where she came from (the sea). If not... well it will be panel time again. Wondering if we will have a Matthew-like event with a coastal rider.



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