Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

12Z GFS run is going, at 42 hours out it's nearing Barbuda, about the same as the last run. By Wednesday morning southern eyewall over Anguilla and St. Martin, slightly north of the prior run (15-20nm).

Early Thursday morning the center of Irma would be 75nm north of the north coast of Puerto Rico, which is about 25nm further north than the earlier run.

Cat 4/5 over Turks and Caicos Friday morning, and by Saturday morning its west of there, but further away from the Cuban coastline than earlier runs. (50 vs 10 nm) this run keeps it north of Cuba.

Sunday morning Cat 5 very near South Florida, coming in just north of Key Largo Sunday afternoon. Keeps moving north with the Core and east side over Metro Miami, may exit back over the Atlantic near Ft. Pierce Monday morning, then clips Cape Canaveral before noon, Still Cat 4.

Another cat 3/4 landfall near Savannah, GA Late Monday night weakens quickly, but still a hurricane as it nears Charlotte, NC.

Again we go over these models to see trends not exact landfall information, this morning was extra far west, now its shifting a bit further east, still not good for the Southeast US and Florida.

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