Some of these models runs put pretty much EVERYONE in FL in some kind of tropical event. Charley did plenty of damage in central FL because our state is low (no hills) and the southern half has Lake O and the Everglades to give storms some water to draw up. Wilma's strength showed that. My normal plan is (as indicated) to head to Orlando because there are lots of hotels and generally doesn't get big winds. However that might not work if Irma tracks up the middle. A more western track puts most of FL on the dirty side, plus the Big Bend area could feel effects. A more eastern track likely gives us a stronger storm (using the energy from the Gulfstream) but would keep the really bad damage on just the eastern shoreline communities provided the eye wall hugs the coast.

The evacuation of the Keys will be critical if things play out as currently predicted since just driving to Miami/Ft Laud/Naples isn't really getting out of harms way. Plus the time required to get everyone out using just one 2 lane road puts massive pressure on our friends down there.