JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:07 AM
Re: Continuity.

Quote:

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.




Gotta assume the data, science and computer power have all increased leading to much better forecasting. I too remember when you could basically ignore the 5 day cone because it was so far off.

Overnight we had another shift S and W of said cone. This starting to look like a hybrid of a Charley / Wilma over land track. After going thru the middle to lower Keys it appears Irma would have a landfall on the SW coast between Naples and Sarasota (as Cat 4) with a track N to slightly NNE thru most of the state all the way to Jacksonville.

Given the environment Irma will likely be a Cat 5 today and maintain that (or darn close) until it reaches Puerto Rico with only ERC causes small up/down fluctuations.



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