Tue Sep 05 2017 01:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Midday models (Main two):

12Z Gfs:
Turks Caicos Friday morning Cat 4/5
Eyewall scrapes Miami up to West Palm Beach Sunday, Cat 5
Cat 4/5 landfall near Savannah, GA Monday afternoon
Slightly east of prior run, and keeps barely offshore the east coast of Florida, but eyewall within major met areas.

12Z Euro (Running now):
Midday tomorrow, Cat 5 landfall over St. Martin.
Clears PR to the north, still some affects though. Stays north of DR on Thursday.
Friday Midday over Inagua Island, Cat 4/5 (Of note Bay of Campeche system develops)
Saturday Midday, over Central Cuba
Sunday Midday, exiting into Florida Straits near Havana
Monday, Landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers cat 4/5 then straight north up the state, into Georgia by Tuesday.

CMC: Hits PR, Plows through Cuba, then turns north into the Gulf, landfall near Panama City Cat 2. (West outlier) Already too far south.

Midday Sunday landfall at West Palm Beach Cat 5 (briefly, then back offshore)
Landfall northern Cuba coast Saturday Morning, Cat 5
Back over Water north of Cuba Sunday Morning, Cat 3 (West of Key west)

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