(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:46 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge


I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the gfs and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models

Splitting the difference right now might be the thing to do. First of all, the path models look fairly evenly split between west edge of Florida and east edge, with everything in between. It's really too far out to have a great deal of confidence in any of those variations, so splitting the difference keeps everyone in Florida on alert. Favoring one or the other too much may give some people a false sense of security. The NHC has a lot of things to balance this far out, and one of them is the reaction of the people potentially in a target area. You don't want panic, but you also don't want anyone thinking they are so safe they ignore the situation. I was reading that many people did not evacuate in front of Harvey because they thought it was "only" a Category 2 storm and when it strengenthed it was too late for them to leave.

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