JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:36 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.




Agree. Its either a bad model run or a new trend the other models haven't picked up on yet. Is the high becoming weaker? Is it pulling out? Where is the incoming front? Is the cut off low not happening now? This is why I don't pick a favorite model and instead follow the trends on all of them. We watched run after run go S and W. This moved Irma from out to sea (many days ago), to the Bahamas and finally into FL. Now we've got a single data point showing a near miss to the east? No real confidence in that scenario at this time.



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