Tue Sep 05 2017 09:47 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Wanted to mention the 18z Hurricane focused models.

18Z HWRF has landfall in Big Pine Key sunday midday as a Cat 5, then south of Marco Island on the mainland cat 5 later that afternoon, run ends just east of Naples inland.

18Z HMON landfall cat 5 near Tavernier in the keys, just after midnight Sunday. mainland landfall soon after about 10 miles west of the US1 bridge, then moves over lake Okechobee and the winds up near Orlando late Sunday night where the run ends (Cat 3/4 at the time)

Of note I believe the 18z GFS is too far north/east based on how the system initialized, (Too far north) Irma will likely be a nail biter up until the turn, which could take it from the Gulf coast to out to sea, still. If the trend lasts an entire 24 hours, I would feel better.

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