Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z Euro shifted east, this time. The storm is aover the Turks and Caicos late tomorrow night in the cat 3/4 range, crosses the very southern tip of Andros island in the Bahamas Sautrday midday. Then western eyewall gets very close to West Palm Beach late Sunday night, <20 miles. Then landfall between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. Early Ttuesday morning,

6z GFS is very similar, but with landfall slightly south of the Euro and closest point to West Palm is 30-40 miles. The run is mostly identical to the 0z run until it gets east of Jacksonville, where it turns back west faster.

0z HWRF has also moved east of Florida 6Z HWRF Still running, a bit west of the 0z run,

0z HMon has landfall near Key Largo early Sunday as a cat 5, then up the state, and out by Daytona Beach Early Monday. 6Z HMON Takes it to north of Savannah, closest approach to WPB is about 60 miles.

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda, GFS Ensembles are still nearly a 50/50 split on a Florida landfall (mean winds up slightly east this time though) and the Euro ensembles still take it up the spine of Florida.

Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet. It's not good news for the Carolinas if this occurs, though. A few miles in either direction will make a lot of difference, look for bias corrects (GFS has been too far north consistently in the short range) Bottom line, wait to see if this holds or not, and take the word of the National Hurricane Center over any other source.

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