Wed Sep 06 2017 11:48 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

12Z GFS running, Init seems good, reflects BVI issues.

Over Turks and Caicos late Thursday night, cat 4. avoids direct impact with the central Bahamas this time, stays to the south of the rest of the Bahamas (They still get north eyewall though) 40nm southwest of the earlier run at 60 hours. Faster forward motion, also. Jumps noticeably west of earlier run at 66 hours. 50nm ssw of earlier run at 78 hours.

Landfall or very near miss Ft. Lauderdale, Cat 5 midday Sunday, before that Metro Miami in eyewall. Moves north near/over West Palm and back into the Atlantic by late Sunday, then rides just offshore up the coast toward Savannah, GA. landfall, Savannah Monday afternoon, cat 4.

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