Wed Sep 06 2017 09:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge



18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.

Which of these models do you generally have the most confidence in?

Honestly, none of them, but it helps to see what the Hurricane center may be thinking. Euro and GFS tend to be the best, but some of the others are good in other circumstances. UKmet, for example sniffed out Matthew's final track a good bit earlier than some others, but didn't do so well with Harvey. I'd go with the official forecast.

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