Wed Sep 06 2017 11:35 PM

0z gfs run starts now:

Initialization seems good position wise, pressure wise it's much too high, which is odd and a fair reason to discount some of it, It, stays on track for the first 24 hours (from last run) over Turks and Caicos Late tomorrow (Very slightly east of 18z run) then 35nm sse of 18z position at 36 hours.

Gets further west this run but bends up to match the 18z position, 30nm east of West Palm Sunday Midday, very little shift. 96 hours it's further east than the 18z run. Ridges appears to erode unrealistically quickly this run, between this and the bad pressure init I think it may be a defective run.

Cat 5 landfall Tuesday morning just south of Myrtle Beach, SC. Way east late in the run from prior runs. This may be a bad run in general because of the problems note. It also takes Jose over Barbuda.

0z UKmet with a big west shift, brief Cuba landfall,, then landfall Big Pine Key Saturday night Cat 4/5, second US landfall south of Everglades City Cat 4/5. Exits the state near New Smyrna Beach, then a third US landfall between Svannah and Charleston Cat 2/3

Doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme, but the UKMET did the best with Matthew last year this far out (for track).

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