Thu Sep 07 2017 12:58 PM


This system is so powerful that it virtually controls the environment surrounding it. My fear is that the statistical models may not be able to factor the potential for Irma to literally over power the customary blocking features to the west and north. That being the case a more westerly point before the turn is still logical and not out of the questionp

Totally agree, I also worry that the storm will also do a better job holding together against shear.

I do think the GFS is trying to handle that, it is pushing the trough retrograde as Irma pushes in. It's also interesting to see the jet "streak" developing in apparent response to Irma (I put streak in quotes because it's not really that fast, less than 100 KTs).

Irma also seems to be following the PVA that develops over Georgia, which makes sense if there is some upper level divergence near the jet 'streak'.

Both the GFS and NAM 12z take the trough axis from positive to negative and retrograde - which could be what's pulling Irma more west after 84 to 96 hours. Then again, Irma could be what's inducing the trough to go negative, retrograde, and deepen. *Scratches head*

Figures, I don't get to take mesoscale until the spring! LOL

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