(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:50 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge



Was worried about being able to get back from Sebring -> East Coast

I'm worried about just getting one block down the street. That is after climbing out from under a house that has an oak tree sitting on top of it.


Don't be a wobble watcher!

But are these wobbles or trends? Yesterday we had plenty of the "wiper effect" with the models flipping back and forth - east coast / west coast. 20 miles here or there suddenly starts to add up. I know Andrew was much smaller/more compact system but as I posted a few days ago (feels like weeks) there was a remarkable difference in damage from southern Broward, to central Dade, to southern Dade.

Irma looks to encounter some strong shear (finally!) about 1/2 way up the state which should allow some weakening during her run north. Right now that is what I'm counting on.

But it is now forecast to go back up to a 5 at landfall.

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