Sat Sep 09 2017 03:42 AM

Latest ECMWF (model has outperformed others with Irma) strongly suggests that the cyclone will ride along or just inland of the Cuban coastline for at least another 18 hours or so, and on this track Irma would have some significant and ongoing land interaction. The center would be traveling across lowlands at least off and on - possibly continuously -- and the broader circulation wound likely have at least some disruption from hills. But even on this track, the model shows only modest weakening.

The most recent recon pass found that Irma's pressure has already gone up several millibars, likely as a result of this continued westward track - into portions of Cuba. Given the degradation on satellite, along with the weakening noted in the last recon pass, it is possible that the Euro is understating the amount of weakening that will occur. However, keep in mind that once Irma gets mostly to all back out over water, restrengthening will probably commence, regardless.

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